How confident can we be in a laboratory measurement of wave energy performance?
Laboratory testing is essential for developing wave energy technologies, but every measurement carries uncertainty. Understanding that uncertainty is critical before experimental results are used to justify larger prototypes, field deployment or investment decisions.
This study systematically quantified the uncertainty in Oscillating Water Column experiments under both regular and realistic random waves. Repeated testing, high-accuracy optical measurements and Monte Carlo analysis were combined to distinguish measurement error from the natural variability of the waves themselves.
The experiments showed very strong repeatability, with measurement variability generally below 1%. The expanded uncertainty in average power output was below 1% under regular waves and approximately 2.5% under random waves, where part of the additional uncertainty comes from the natural randomness of realistic sea conditions.
Putting confidence bounds on wave energy experiments. The uncertainty analysis separates experimental variability, measurement uncertainty and their combined effect across the main quantities used to determine OWC performance, comparing controlled regular waves with more realistic random sea conditions.
Source: Almalki, Y.R. & Karmpadakis, I. (2026), Renewable Energy, 271, 126002, Fig. 13. Licensed under CC BY 4.0.
The broader message is simple: a performance number is much more meaningful when we also know how much confidence we can place in it.
Citation
Y.R. Almalki, I. Karmpadakis (2026). Uncertainty analysis of oscillating water column experiments under regular and random wave conditions. Renewable Energy, 271, 126002.
Commentary
How confident can we be in a laboratory measurement of wave energy performance?
Laboratory testing is essential for developing wave energy technologies, but every measurement carries uncertainty. Understanding that uncertainty is critical before experimental results are used to justify larger prototypes, field deployment or investment decisions.
This study systematically quantified the uncertainty in Oscillating Water Column experiments under both regular and realistic random waves. Repeated testing, high-accuracy optical measurements and Monte Carlo analysis were combined to distinguish measurement error from the natural variability of the waves themselves.
The experiments showed very strong repeatability, with measurement variability generally below 1%. The expanded uncertainty in average power output was below 1% under regular waves and approximately 2.5% under random waves, where part of the additional uncertainty comes from the natural randomness of realistic sea conditions.
Source: Almalki, Y.R. & Karmpadakis, I. (2026), Renewable Energy, 271, 126002, Fig. 13. Licensed under CC BY 4.0.
The broader message is simple: a performance number is much more meaningful when we also know how much confidence we can place in it.